To the question of a seismic mode on a basis of theoretical-possible simulation

  1. Institute of Cosmophysical Research and Radiowave Propagation, Far East Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences

At empirical construction of theoretical-probabilistic model of some stochastic event this model should be
constant for all period of observations. It allows on the basis of direct measurements to restore a theoretical-
probabilistic model of an object. To use such approach for description of a seismic mode, which stochastic
properties arbitrary change, it is necessary to calculate average frequencies of a casual event for some period.
In this case it is possible approximately to speak about average probabilities of casual events for the chosen
time interval. Comparing average probabilities (frequencies) for different periods, it is possible to trace changes,
which occur in a seismic mode. However, speaking strictly, if the stochastic properties of an object arbitrary
change, the results of each observation do not characterize its probability. In this case by the results of obser-
vations it is impossible to restore exact theoretical-probabilistic model of a seismic mode. At the same time at
known restrictions, which assume any character of evolution of stochastic properties of an object, its theoretical-
possible model can be restored on the basis of final number of observations . In the present report the attempt
of construction the theoretical-possible model for the description of a seismic mode of Kamchatka peninsula is
undertaken on the basis of earthquakes catalogue. Such model estimates relative "potential realizability " of
single events in scale, in which the ratios can be interpreted only as "more", "less" or "equal".