AE index variations during extreme space weather and its forecast

• DOI

Space weather impact on the operation of technical systems is significant and may cause technogenic disasters. Timely forecast of space weather parameter variations allows one to decrease the risks of incidents in different spheres of life. To solve the problems of forecasting the energy volumes penetrating into the geosphere shells and initiating strong magnetic storms, the paper proposes an approach based on wavelet processing and neural networks. We presents the modeling results for AE index, which characterizes the energy volume penetrating into the magnetosphere during magnetic storms. The results of the constructed neuron network were compared with AE index initial data. The obtained neural network models can be used in the tasks of forecast of extreme impact on technical systems.

Y.Polozov AE index variations during extreme space weather and its forecast//AIP Conference Proceedings. International Conference on SMART Automatics and Energy: SMARTICAE. Vladivostok, 2023. Vol. 2910, Issue 1, P. 020131. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0166562