Works on the RSF Grant 23-71-01050 «Development of software for modeling and analysis of radon volumetric activity as a precursor of strong Kamchatka earthquakes» have been successfully finished

Project author is the Researcher of the Laboratory of Electromagnetic Radiation, Can. Sci. (Phys.-Math.) Tverdiy Dmitriy Alexandrovich.

The following scientific results were obtained during the Project:

• a new mathematical models were developed on the basis of fractional derivatives taking into account the memory effect;
• a generalized hereditary α(t)-model of radon volumetric activity (RVA) was developed using inverse problem methods;
• effective computational algorithms, including hybrid ones of CPU-GPU realization, were developed, which accelerates the computation process;
• software complex FEVO v1.0, including sequential and parallel algorithms, was developed to solve direct and inverse problems;
• the model was tested on the data from Petropavlovsk-Kamchatskiy geodynamic field testing site and from other regions;
• radon flux density was estimated on the basis of the results of solution of an inverse problem for hereditary RVA model;
• the models were verified and tested on real RVA data, which made it possible to confirm the hypothesis on the relation of α – order fractional derivative with geological environment permeability;
• a monograph was prepared and license No. 2025618931 for PC program was registered;
• papers were published in top-rated journals (BC1, Scopus, State Commission for Academic Degrees and Titles) and a large number of presentations were made at scientific conferences.

Project results:

• contribute to the development of mathematical modeling of dynamic processes with hereditary properties;
• promote the development of scientific-technological capacity of Russia in the field of natural disasters forecasting;
• have significant potential for application in economic and social spheres.

Modeling methodology, taking into account the memory effects (hereditary), can be adapted for investigating other dynamic processes, which will make it in demand in a wide class of geophysical investigations. The software complex was implemented in operations of IKIR FEB RAS with planned deployment at Kamchatka Branch of the Geophysical Service RAS.

The developed software complex is capable of analyzing RVA anomalies, thus it can be used in the systems of seismic activity monitoring as one of the tools for earthquake prediction.

The obtained results have significant scientific and practical values, promote the development of mathematical modeling methods and can be used to solve topical problems in geophysics, seismology and ecology.