The paper «Estimation of Radon Flux Density Changes in Temporal Vicinity of the Shipunskoe Earthquake with Mw = 7.0, 17 August 2024 with the Use of the Hereditary Mathematical Model» has been published in Geosciences Journal by MDPI publishing house

The authors are: Cand. of Sci. (Phys.-Math.) Tverdiy — Researcher of the Laboratory of Electromagnetic Radiation of IKIR FEB RAS, Cand. of Sci. (Phys.-Math.) Makarov E.O. - Acting Head of the Laboratory of Acoustic and Radon Monitoring of Kamchatka Branch of the Federal Research Center of Geophysical Survey RAS and Dr. of Sci. (Phys.-Math.) Parovik R.I. - Leading Researcher of the Laboratory of Physical Process Modeling of IKIR FEB RAS.

Using the data of radon accumulation in a chamber with excess volume at one of the points of the Kamchatka subsurface gas-monitoring network, the change in radon flux density due to seismic waves and post-seismic relaxation of the medium is shown.

A linear fractional equation is considered to be a model equation. The change of radon-transport intensity due to changes in the state of the geo-environment is described by a fractional Gerasimov–Caputo derivative of constant order. Presumably, the order of the fractional derivative is related to the radon-transport intensity in the geosphere.

Using the Levenberg–Marquardt method, the optimal values of the model parameters were determined based on experimental data: air exchange coefficient and order of fractional derivative, which allowed us to solve the problems of radon flux density determination.

Data in the temporal neighborhood of a strong earthquake with Mw=7.0, which occurred in the northern part of Avacha Bay on 17 August 2024, were used. As a result of the modeling, it is shown that the strong seismic impact and subsequent processes led to the changes in the radon flux in the accumulation chamber.

The obtained model curves agree well with the real data, and the obtained estimates of radon flux density agree with the theory.

The graph shows:

• (green) Experimental RVA (Radial Velocity Anomaly) data from the INSR observation site: (a)—RVA before the earthquake, on 27 July 2024 (16:00) — 10 August 2024 (15:30); (b) — RVAafter the earthquake, on 16 August 2024 (16:00) — 29 August 2024 (15:30);
• (grey) atmospheric pressure data at INSR point;
• (light blue) excluded section of the RVA due to the strong influence of reduced pressure;
• (red line) earthquake with the magnitude of 7.0.

Full text of the paper is available at link. 

Paper reference: Tverdyi, D.; Makarov, E.; Parovik, R. Estimation of Radon Flux Density Changes in Temporal Vicinity of the Shipunskoe Earthquake with Mw = 7.0, 17 August 2024 with the Use of the Hereditary Mathematical Model. Geosciences 2025, 15, 30. https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences15010030