Характеристики сейсмического процесса в рамках статистической диффузионной модели пластических течений

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Statistical model of plastic flows on the example of the subduction zone of the Kuril-

Kamchatka arch was developed according to the data of Global CMT catalog for the period 1976–2005 (magnitude values 4-7, 50∘ − 60∘ N, 156∘ − 166∘ E, 221 events), and the basic

characteristics of the flows were determined on the basis of the probabilistic approach to the

seismic process. Uncertainty conditions, that always exist in nature, determine the probabilistic character of seismic processes. Spatial scale of the region, in which seismogeodynamic process develops, in the case of seismic non-catastrophic events, considerably exceeds the size of the earthquake source and the radius of the influence area where the stress is dropping. Criterion of small

increments is performed that's why seismic events can be considered as weak fluctuations and

that allows us to apply diffusion approximation. Presence of temporal and spatial relation between seismic events defines, in general case, the seismic process as a non-local and non-Markov stochastic process. These dependences are mathematically expressed in the correlation of seismic events on temporal and spatial scales, the choice of which is determined by environment characteristics and the seismic process itself. The direction and the value of a shift for each event determine the direction of plastic flow. In the development of plastic flow model within diffusion approach in the first approximation, scheme of stochastic wandering on states was applied, that is a special case of Markov chains. For each chain, that is a plastic flow, average velocity, principal eigenvector of the flow and the

parameters, characterizing the deviation from the principal values, were defined.

Шереметьва О.В., Попова А.В. – Характеристики сейсмического процесса в рамках статистической диффузионной модели пластических течений. // СОЛНЕЧНО-ЗЕМНЫЕ СВЯЗИ И ФИЗИКА ПРЕДВЕСТНИКОВ ЗЕМЛЕТРЯСЕНИЙ Сборник докладов VI международной конференции. Ответственный редактор Б.М. Шевцов. - 2013. - С. 439-443.