Estimation of the efficiency of the earthquake prediction on the basis of the analysis of ionospheric parameters

 A method of the operational forecast of strong earthquakes is considered. Exceedance of the current values of ionospheric critical frequency f₀F₂ over the median values during the disturbed state of the magnetosphere is considered to be a precursor. The reliability, validity and the efficiency of the precursor were evaluated by A.A. Gusev's and G.M. Molchan's methods for the period of 2009-2016. Earthquakes with the magnitude of M ≥ 5.0 occurring within the zone of precursor appearance determined by Dobrovol'skiy's radius were considered as forecasting earthquakes. It was shown that the precursor has the best predictive efficiency for the seismic events with the magnitude of M ≥ 6.5.

V.V. Bogdanov, A.V. Pavlov. Estimation of the efficiency of the earthquake prediction on the basis of the analysis of ionospheric parameters.\\ E3S Web of Conferences (VIII International Conference "Solar-Terrestrial Relations and Physics of Earthquake Precursors") 2017 С. 03001 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/20172003001 France EDP Sciences