Application for RSF grant has been supported

   No. 23-71-01050 "Development of software complexes for modeling and analysis of radon volumetric activity as a precursor of strong earthquakes in Kamchatka», Project Leader: Tverdiy Dmitriy Aleksandrovich, Cand. of Phys.-Math. Sc., researcher of IKIR FEB RAS.

   The Project is aimed at the observation of radon emanation variations in the ground upper layer as an indicator of stress-strain environment state change. As the result of geo-environment compression or stretching, radon concentration changes that is reflected in its time series dynamics as anomalies of different form. Such anomalies often precede seismic events, earthquakes. For example, in 1966 the radon concentration increase in ground water ended up with the Tashkent earthquake. In 2011 anomalies of underground radon concentration was observed for several months synchronously with earth surface vertical deformations before the destructive earthquake in Japan. However, it should be noted that mechanisms of anomaly occurrences in ground radon field are not clear yet. Current mathematical models of emanation method theory are limited in application and do not always give adequate results. Automation of the investigation method for detection of anomalous effects in radon volumetric activity dynamics with real-time result output is required.

   Expected results are associated with the development of software complex, which will allow to analyze radon volumetric activity dynamics in an accumulation chamber at observation site network in Kamchatka and to consider anomalous effects of different form, which precede seismic events in Kamchatka. The software complex will make it possible to automate the calculation method based on a mathematical model, which takes into account the saturation and hereditarity effects. Model parameters will be updated by estimating a corresponding inverse problem by preliminary processed experimental data. The software complex will be tested on a site network for radon monitoring of KB FRC GS RAS at Petropavlovsk-Kamchatskiy geodynamic test field with the possibility to operate in real time.