Medium-term forecast of the seismic event on February 28, 2013 , M = 6.9, Kamchatka, on the data of water level observations in E-1 well : an example of precursor parametrization

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   The report considers water level variations in Е-1 well as a precursor for
   Kamchatka earthquakes, this variation regularly appears before Kamchatka
   earthquakes with M>=5.0 at the distances (R) up to 350 km. On the basis of
   this precursor, forecast for the earthquake on February 28, 2013, M=6.9,
   R=280 km was made 27 days before the event. The forecast was registered in
   Kamchatka Branch of the Russian Expert Council on Earthquake Prediction,
   Assessment of Seismic Hazard and Risk (KB REC). The forecast was
   accompanied by probabilistic estimations of its reliability concerning
   occurrence of earthquakes with M>=5.0 and M>=5.9.

   The problems of parametrization of this precursor are discussed on the
   basis of a retrospective data analysis of long-term (1996-2012)
   observation data. The parametrization of the precursor included: 1 -
   determination of precursor parameters (duration and advance time); 2 -
   determination of predictable earthquake area and parameters; 3 -
   estimation of precursor informativity parameters for the earthquake
   forecast (probability of connection of a precursor and earthquakes (Р) and
   its prognostic efficiency (I)).