UPDATE OF LONG-TERM FORECASTS OF STRONG EARTHQUAKES FOR AREAS OF PACIFIC AND ALPINE -HIMALAYA TECTONIC BELTS AND THEIR IMPLEMENTATION IN A REAL TIME

Serafimova Yu. K., Shirokov V.A.
  1. Kamchatkan Branch, Geophysical Survey, Russian Academy of Sciences

Earlier writers offer a method of phase pathways, permitted at the combined analysis of influencing on
seismicity of two space rhythms (lunar tide with Т1 = 18.6 y. and Hale’s solar cycle with Т2 approximately 22
y.) to make the forecasts of strong tectonic earthquakes for 12 active areas of world on nearest 20 years. The
accuracy of the forecasts in many respects depends on the moment of definition of epoch of a minimum of a
current Hale’s cycle and its mean duration. In January, 2010 the more precise values of these parameters have
appeared, that has allowed to update the made earlier forecasts for 12 active areas of the Earth for the period
till 2030. Are cited data about successful implementation of the made forecasts in a real time.