A HOLISTIC APPROACH TO THE PROBLEM OF SHORT-TERM EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION IN VIEW OF THE MODERN PHYSICAL MODEL FOR PRECURSOR GENERATION

Pulinets S.A., Bogdanov V.V.

     The process of earthquake preparation and the precursors generation is considered from the standpoint of nonequilibrium thermodynamics based on the concept of an open system, the evolution of which is due to the processes of self-organization. Under this approach, the system of geophysical shells "lithosphere, neutral atmosphere, ionosphere" is an open nonlinear system that is exposed to external influences. In such a system, due to internal dissipation and coordinated interaction of many of its elements through intensive (streaming) exchange of matter and energy with the environment in non-equilibrium conditions, a process of self-organization can occur that brings the system into a critical state.

    According to [Keilis-Borok, 2002], the state of complex systems cannot be predicted with absolute accuracy. However, the holistic approach "from the whole to the details", as a result of successive approximations, allows us to find a solution for determining the parameters of a preparing earthquake with acceptable accuracy.

    One of the main parameters of an earthquake is the released energy, expressed in terms of magnitude. Analysis of the physical processes of energy dissipation in the environment in the areas of strong earthquakes preparation showed that the amount of thermal energy in the form of latent heat released for several days before an earthquake is an order of magnitude higher than the mechanical energy released during an earthquake itself [Ouzounovetal., 2021], Fig. 1. Thus, under the holistic approach, we should take into account the atmospheric phenomena occurring before an earthquake. The proposed physical model of lithospheric-atmospheric-ionospheric interaction (LAIC) [Pulinets et al., 2015] makes it possible to develop algorithms for short-term prediction of strong earthquakes. The algorithms were tested in various seismically active regions of the planet and showed high efficiency.

    Pulinets S.A., Bogdanov V.V. \\Collection of reports II All-Russian Scientific Conference with international participation Modern methods of seismic hazard assessment and earthquake prediction pp.89-90