The concept of an approach to short-term prediction of the time of the strongest earthquakes in the Avacha Bay area (Kamchatka)

According to the latest long-term seismic forecast [Fedotov, Solomatin, 2019], the most likely location of the next strongest (M ≥ 7.7) earthquake for the entire Kuril-Kamchatka arc is an extended seismic gap in the area of the southern part of Kamchatka and the Avacha Bay. A shallow earthquake with M ≥ 8.0 in the Avacha Bay area can cause shocks of force 5 in Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky and lead to the death of several tens of thousands of people. For this reason, a sufficiently reliable probabilistic short-term forecast of the time of such an earthquake is considered by the authors as the most urgent and responsible task for the present moment. It is assumed that such a forecast will be based on an assessment of the compliance of changes in the main observed parameters of the geo-environment in the area of the Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky geodynamic polygon (PGP) with the expected scenario of their changes, calculated for the final stage of strong earthquake preparation in the Avacha Bay area. The calculation of the expected changes in the characters and amplitudes of the recorded geophysical quantities is supposed to be performed by direct numerical modeling methods within the framework of the basic physical model of earthquake preparation used. To monitor the stress-strain state of the geomedium in the GWP zone, data from a network of integrated borehole measurements will be used, as well as data from monitoring the state of the ionosphere in the GWP zone.

V.A. Gavrilov, A.V. Descherevsky, A.V. Solomatin, I.A. Panteleev, S.A. Pulinets, V.V. Bogdanov, Yu.Yu. Buss, Yu.V. Morozova, E.V. \\ Proceedings of the Eighth All-Russian Scientific and Technical Conference with International participation. Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky. September 26–October 2, 2021 / Ed. by D.V. Chebrov. – Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky: KF FITZ EGSRAN, 2021. pp. 47-48.