Evaluation of the effectiveness of earthquake prediction based on ionospheric parameters analysis

The method of short-term prediction of strong earthquakes is considered. According to the it,  the excess of the current values of the ionospheric layer F2 critical frequency f₀-F2 over the median values during magnetosphere disturbed state is considered as a precursor. The reliability and validity of the precursor was assessed, and its effectiveness was evaluated according to the methods by A. A. Gusev and G.M. Molchan for the period 2009-2016. Earthquakes with magnitudes M > 5.0 that occurred within the zone of the precursor manifestation determined by the Dobrovolsky radius were considered as predicted earthquakes. It is shown that the considered precursor has the best predictive efficiency for seismic events with magnitude M > 6.5.

Bogdanov V.V., Pavlov A.V. Evaluation of the effectiveness of earthquake prediction based on the analysis of ionosphere parameters.\VIII International Conference Solar-Terrestrial Relations and Physics of earthquake Precursors: Collection of Theses, September 25 - 29, 2017, Paratunka village, Kamchatka Krai. p. 119.