Analysis of the predictive effectiveness of the parameters of seismic regime probabilistic model

 In the works, a probabilistic approach was applied to the catalog of Kamchatka earthquakes. Considering each earthquake as an elementary event, and the entire catalog or s part of it as a space of elementary events, the approach makes it possible to define a set of subsets of random events. By statistical processing of the earthquake catalog, it is possible to determine probability distributions for given random events. Variations in the probability distributions of random events over different time periods make it possible to track the changes in seismic regime of a region and, therefore, to determine the areas and periods of increased seismic activity.

In this paper, for twelve seismically active regions of Kamchatka region, the probabilities P of given random events determined on the basis of the Kamchatka earthquake catalog were calculated. Considering the anomalous values of probabilities P during the periods of seismic activity intensification and seismically calm periods as prognostic signs, preceding strong earthquakes with an energy class Ks > 14.0, their effectiveness V, reliability R, as well as the effectiveness of forecasting J were evaluated according to the methods by A.A. Gusev and G.M. Molchan.

Bogdanov V.V., Pavlov A.V. Analysis of the prognostic efficiency of the parameters of the probabilistic model of the seismic regime.\The sixth Scientific and Technical Conference "Problems of integrated geophysical monitoring of the Russian Far East", October 1 - October 7, 2016. Russia, Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky. http://emsd.ru/conf2017lib/pdf/seism/bogdanov.pdf.