ESTIMATION OF PREDICTION EFFICIENCY OF SEISMIC REGIME PROBABILISTIC MODEL PARAMETERS

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ESTIMATION OF PREDICTION EFFICIENCY OF SEISMIC REGIME PROBABILISTIC MODEL PARAMETERS

Bogdanov V.V., Pavlov A.V.

On the basis of theoretical-probabilistic approach to the Kamchatka earthquakes catalog the subset of random events was specified and their probabilities were calculated. The received probabilities of random events considered as predictors of strong earthquakes with energy class KS _ 14. Their effectiveness V, reliability R and prediction efficiency (informative) J were calculated for periods of seismic activity and seismic calm.

Key words: probability, seismicity, forecasting effectiveness

Bogdanov V.V., Pavlov A.V. ESTIMATION OF PREDICTION EFFICIENCY OF SEISMIC REGIME PROBABILISTIC MODEL PARAMETERS. \\Bulletin of KRAESC PHYSICO-MATHEMATICAL SCIENCES. № 1 (17). ‒ C. 54-67. Russia, Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky