Probabilistic model of seismicity on the example of Kamchatka earthquakes

Bogdanov V.V., Pavlov A.V., Polyukhova A.L.

    Examples of statistical distributions of earthquake hypocenters by depth and epicenters by different areas over different periods are considered. The probabilities P are defined in frequency representations. Using the example of the recurrence law (RL), written as a power dependence for the density of the distribution f(k), in which the distribution function f(k0) initial value, not seismic activity A0, is the source value [Bogdanov, 2006]. Calculations for the representative class kmin 9 showed that for different coordinate and time intervals the distribution f0(k) of the earthquake catalog without aftershocks corresponds to the distribution fH(k) of the earthquake catalog with aftershocks. It follows from the calculations that for different initial values of the energy class k0 (8 k0 12), f(k0) takes almost similar numerical values. Moreover, the more events under consideration, the smaller this difference is. There is a hypothesis that with an increase in the number of events, the values of f(k0) tend to cluster around the number equal to 2/3. Based on the Kolmogorov criterion, the hypothesis on the compatibility of the analytical form of probabilistic RL was tested on the basis of the distribution function with the initial value f(k0) = 2/3 and statistical recurrence laws. Examples of statistical distributions of earthquake hypocenters by depth and epicenters by different areas for different periods were considered.

    Bogdanov V.V., Pavlov A.V., Polyukhova A.L. Probabilistic model of seismicity on the example of Kamchatka earthquakes. // Volcanology and Seismology.2010. No. 6. from 64-74.